Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 220830
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF GA INTO THE
   ERN CAROLINAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   GFS AND NAM REMAIN SIMILAR WITH FASTER PROGRESSION AND A LESS
   AMPLIFIED VERSION OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. A SURFACE
   LOW WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY EARLY
   FRIDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWWD INTO THE SERN STATES AND SRN
   TX. SPEED OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL DEPEND ON EWD PROGRESSION OF IMPULSE
   MOVING THROUGH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...BUT THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY
   EXIT THE TX COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND THE CAROLINA COASTS BY LATE
   AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER ECMWF WOULD
   SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER SEVERE THREAT THAN THE NAM AND GFS.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS EARLY FRIDAY WITHIN ZONE OF
   FRONTAL ASCENT OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES FROM LA NEWD INTO
   GA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE
   WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. PRIMARY LLJ IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE
   THROUGH GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS WHERE IT WILL TRANSPORT AN AXIS OF
   LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE
   RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL PROBABLY
   SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
   NEVERTHELESS...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG
   WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS EWD DURING THE MORNING AND INTO
   THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. WILL MAINTAIN AT
   LEAST A LOW END SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY IN
   LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...TX...
   
   COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTH TX COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
   HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO TO
   AUGMENT ASCENT IN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE LATER THE PERIOD. SUFFICIENT
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY EXIST TO SUPPORT MODEST
   HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED.
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/22/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z