Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 110730
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE INVOF THE LOWER/MID-MS VALLEY ON SUN
   MORNING SHOULD DRIFT NEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
   MON. UNCERTAINTIES THAT PLAGUED THE D2 FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST/LOWER MS
   VALLEY...ARE AMPLIFIED FURTHER INTO D3. IN THE WEST...A MID-LEVEL
   IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S/SEWD FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE
   SOUTHWEST.
   
   ...DEEP SOUTH...
   LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO THE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC
   PARAMETER SPACE WITH SUBSTANTIAL VARIATION AMONG SREF AND
   DETERMINISTIC NCEP/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE. ETA-BASED KF AND WRF-ARW
   MEMBERS OF THE SREF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
   WITH THE NWD RETURN OF RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
   SLYS AND MID-LEVEL SWLYS THAN ETA-BASED BMJ AND WRF-NMM MEMBERS OF
   THE SREF AND NAM/GFS GUIDANCE. WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN MINOR...SUCH DISCREPANCIES WOULD LIKELY YIELD EITHER THE
   DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A NULL EVENT OR SLIGHT RISK CALIBER POTENTIAL IN
   LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN NM...FAR W TX...
   A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL W/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE
   IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN...WITHIN A CONTINUED
   UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE SPATIOTEMPORAL
   EVOLUTION OF THE IMPULSE...WITH THE NAM/ETA-BASED KF CONTROL RUNS
   FASTER/FARTHER WEST THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. THE LATTER WOULD FAVOR
   SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE FROM THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...WITH MODEST BUOYANCY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. WILL OPT
   FOR A LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM AND DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR
   POTENTIAL SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/11/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z