Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 020727
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ID/MT AND
   VICINITY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD IS FORECAST THIS
   PERIOD...AS THE LARGE NERN PACIFIC VORTEX/TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
   NWRN U.S. LATE. THIS INLAND SHIFT OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL OCCUR IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH...AND
   THEREFORE A SHARPENING/EXPANSION OF THE CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE.  THE
   RESULT WILL BE A BLOCKY PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 3
   PERIOD AND BEYOND.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE ACROSS
   THE WRN U.S. AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...CROSSING THE GREAT
   BASIN/ID/WRN MT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  IN THE E...A COLD FRONT IS
   FORECAST TO SAG SWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.  BOTH OF THESE
   BOUNDARIES SHOULD FOCUS A ZONE OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS
   PERIOD.
   
   ...NRN ID/MT...
   AS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
   THE DAY 3 PERIOD...HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO
   ID/MT...WHERE DAYTIME HEATING OF THE MODESTLY-MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
   INSTABILITY.  AS STORMS INITIATE -- BOTH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
   INVOF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...MODERATELY STRONG SSWLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT
   UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION.  ALONG WITH THREAT FOR HAIL
   WITH STRONGER CELLS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS EVIDENT GIVEN
   POTENTIAL FOR BOTH FAST STORM MOTION AND EVAPORATIVELY ENHANCED
   DOWNDRAFTS.
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY ESEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
   AS THE ERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES...A FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SWD/SSWWD
   INTO THE SOUTHEAST.  WITH WNWLY FLOW ALOFT FORECAST -- ROUGHLY
   ALIGNED ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A
   FOCUS FOR A ZONE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION.  THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER
   ON THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH -- AND THUS
   TIMING ON THE ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT.  THUS -- WHILE SOME
   SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS CONVECTIVE EVENT...WILL OPT
   TO CARRY A BROADER/LOWER PROBABILITY THREAT AREA ATTM -- UNTIL THE
   ZONE OF POTENTIAL CAN BE MORE ACCURATELY NARROWED.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/02/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z