Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 110730
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY WED SHOULD DAMPEN AS
   IT TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS SWRN CANADA/FAR NWRN CONUS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS
   SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE/LOCATION OF THE LEAD IMPULSE
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPSTREAM TROUGH. THE ECMWF/CMC ARE MORE
   AMPLIFIED/FASTER COMPARED TO NCEP GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE
   PROMINENT SURFACE COLD FRONT EJECTING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY
   EARLY THU. WITH A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
   LAKES...SLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE POLEWARD ADVECTION OF RICHER
   MOISTURE IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A DRYLINE THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
   THE WRN DAKOTAS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON WED AFTERNOON.  
   
   ...PLAINS...
   A BROAD SWATH OF LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL IS APPARENT DURING THE
   PERIOD...BUT LOWER-THAN-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG
   WITH UNCERTAINTIES OVER THE EFFECTS OF CONVECTION FROM D2 MAKE
   IDENTIFYING CORRIDORS OF SLIGHT RISK NEBULOUS ATTM. 
   
   MCS CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z/WED...MOST PROBABLE INVOF RED
   RIVER OF THE SOUTH ALONG REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   AND IN PARTS OF THE MID-MO VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. HOW THIS ACTIVITY /ESPECIALLY SOUTH/ AFFECTS THE
   DEGREE OF NWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS UNCLEAR. ALTHOUGH A BELT OF
   MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE NEB/KS
   BORDER AREA NWD...POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALONG WITH
   THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONCERN...RENDER UNCERTAINTY OVER
   DIURNAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE.
   FARTHER S...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MODERATING MID-LEVEL
   WLYS IN THE SRN PLAINS RELATIVE TO PRIOR DAYS...WHICH SHOULD YIELD
   RELATIVELY MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL COMPARED TO D1-2.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/11/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z