Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 200723
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE SUCH THAT TWO PRIMARY
   AREAS OF INTEREST REGARDING STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL BE NOTED FRIDAY.  THE FIRST AREA IS ALONG/AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
   COLD FRONT FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIANS/MIDDLE ATLANTIC.  THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM EXTREME SERN MT INTO NWRN KS.
   
   ...ERN COLD FRONT...
   
   BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH SERN CANADIAN-OH VALLEY
   UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE ERN U.S. DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD
   WITH UPWARDS OF 25-30KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
   WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR SUCH THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
   EASILY DEVELOP ALONG THE WIND SHIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT
   PROGRESSES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.  ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED
   ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AND A FEW STORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE GUSTY
   WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY INTRODUCE
   5% SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT BUT HIGHER PROBS MAY BE
   NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT CONVECTION
   WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED/INTENSE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS...
   
   MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH
   CENTER OF ANTICYCLONE EXPECTED TO ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
   INTO WEST TX.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH MAY TRANSLATE ACROSS WY THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE HIGH
   PLAINS AROUND PEAK HEATING.  IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS THEN LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT MAY INCREASE AT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL TURNING WITH
   HEIGHT WILL BE NOTED AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE
   PRESENT FOR SUSTAINING ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD
   EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE BLACK HILLS AS LLJ
   INCREASES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  IF LATER MODEL GUIDANCE
   CONTINUES TO PROJECT THIS SHORT-WAVE AT A FAVORABLE TIME THEN A
   SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/20/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z