Aug 3, 2012 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 3 07:32:40 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120803 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20120803 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 030730
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO OH/TN VALLEYS...
   
   ...MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OH/TN VALLEYS...
   THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE TIED TO THE
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH...FROM THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY TO QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
   EARLY MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A MODERATELY STRONG
   BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT
   ESPECIALLY THE UPPER OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND
   THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. 
   
   WHILE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT EARLY DAY TSTMS AND REMNANT OUTFLOWS
   COULD BE FACTORS...AN INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS OTHERWISE
   SEEMS PROBABLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
   INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NY/PA AND OTHER PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY
   TO THE TN VALLEY. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...STEEPENING LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MODERATE BUOYANCY /1000-3000 J PER KG
   SBCAPE/ WILL ACCOUNT FOR STRONG/SUSTAINED STORMS WITHIN A WEAK TO
   MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS ARE
   LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY OVERALL HAZARD...BUT SOME
   SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA.
   SEVERAL ORGANIZED SYSTEMS/CLUSTERS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE BY LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WITHIN A WEAKER SHEAR BUT MORE UNSTABLE
   PRE-FRONTAL REGIME...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TN
   VALLEY/MID-SOUTH AND PERHAPS OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF ORE AND NORTHERN CA/NORTHWEST NV...
   TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
   SUNDAY...AS MOISTURE/FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN TANDEM WITH A
   NORTHEASTWARD MOVING UPPER TROUGH. AS AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS
   DIURNALLY INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A MODEST
   INCREASE IN MOISTURE/VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
   ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF
   WIND/HAIL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 08/03/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z