Aug 30, 2012 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 30 07:15:44 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120830 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20120830 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 300713
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY
   WITH SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES. AN UPPER LOW
   WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL AFFECT MT
   INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
   WILL PERSIST FROM MO INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITH THE REMNANTS OF
   ISAAC. 
   
   ...GREAT BASIN...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE
   PART OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES AS SLY FLOW MAINTAINS MOISTURE.
   MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
   RIDGE...AND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LONGER
   LIVED ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
   
   ...ERN MT INTO ND AND WRN SD...
   UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN MT
   AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE
   STRONG...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE VERY WEAK...THUS UNCERTAINTY IS
   TOO HIGH FOR LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 08/30/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z