Sep 2, 2012 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 2 07:32:40 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120902 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20120902 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 020730
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT SUN SEP 02 2012
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW FIELD IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL U.S. AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MAIN
   CENTRAL CANADA VORTEX -- THEREBY AMPLIFYING THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
   THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER...THE PATTERN
   WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK/DIFFUSE...WITH SOMEWHAT SUBTLE/REMNANT
   FEATURES AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. 
   ELSEWHERE...APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT EVIDENT...WITH THE
   REMNANTS OF ISAAC PROGGED TO FURTHER WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...NEB AND MID MO VALLEY VICINITY...
   SIMILAR SETUP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BOTH AT THE
   SURFACE AND ALOFT DAY 3 AS COMPARED TO DAY 2...WITH SLY/SELY
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS -- RESULTING IN SHEAR
   SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.  THE GENERALLY WEAK
   SURFACE PATTERN FORECAST LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DELINEATING
   AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED THREAT.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS
   SHOULD INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON E OF A WEAK NNW-SSE BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING FROM WRN SD SSEWD INTO THE CENTRAL KS VICINITY...AS THE
   AIRMASS DESTABILIZES IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK HEATING.  WITH A
   CORRIDOR OF GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   REASONABLY LIKELY TO EVOLVE...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE
   NEB/MID MO VALLEY PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION FOR DAY 3.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/02/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z