Sep 3, 2012 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 3 07:29:41 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120903 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20120903 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 030728
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CDT MON SEP 03 2012
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE NRN CONUS
   THIS PERIOD...ON SRN FRINGES OF A LARGE CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH. 
   SEVERAL WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW --
   INCLUDING ONE PROGGED TO BE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION
   IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT
   AN AREA OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL --
   PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
   
   ...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AREA...
   SHOWERS AND STORMS -- POSSIBLY ONGOING OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE
   REGION EARLY -- SHOULD CONTINUE/INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS
   PRE-FRONTAL HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTS IN MODERATE
   DESTABILIZATION.  WITH MODERATELY STRONG WNWLY FLOW ALOFT
   PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS
   APPARENT -- WITH AT LEAST A BROKEN/SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE APPEARING
   FAIRLY LIKELY ATTM BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THUS...WILL INTRODUCE
   SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA...TO COVER THE WIND THREAT AS WELL AS
   HAIL POTENTIAL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/03/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z