Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 070650
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0150 AM CDT SUN OCT 07 2012
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS INDICATE FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCK
   DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  BUT ONLY A SLOW SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
   SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS
   EXPECTED...WITH LITTLE YET TO FORCE AN EASTWARD ACCELERATION. 
   FARTHER EAST...WITHIN LINGERING LARGER SCALE TROUGHING EAST OF THE
   ROCKIES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...THE STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   ONTARIO...THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
    WHILE THE SURFACE CYCLONE ACCOMPANYING THE LATTER FEATURE MIGRATES
   NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   CENTRAL STATES...AS MORE SUBSTANTIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURS OFF
   THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
   OZARK PLATEAU.
   
   ...FLORIDA...
   THE RISK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   TUESDAY...AS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WEAK TO MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ...OZARK PLATEAU...
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN AREA OF MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION OVERSPREADING THE REGION...COUPLED WITH LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION... MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY EVENING. 
   AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
   POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING LEADING EDGE OF
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING...BUT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT
   INSTABILITY WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND THREAT.
   
   ...NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
   WITH THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   MOSTLY OFFSHORE...PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
   THIS PERIOD OVER INLAND AREAS APPEARS LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE AT THE
   PRESENT TIME.
   
   ..KERR.. 10/07/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z