Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 090822
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 AM CST SUN DEC 09 2012
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA BECOMES SIZABLE
   DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS
   WITHIN A BRANCH OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE NORTHEAST
   PACIFIC...BEFORE CURVING ACROSS THE U.S. IN A BROADLY CYCLONIC
   FASHION.  GENERALLY...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIG MORE SHARPLY SOUTHWARD NEAR THE
   PACIFIC COAST...AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AMPLIFIES UPSTREAM...ACROSS
   THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  MEANWHILE...AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES AND
   PLAINS...IT APPEARS THAT ONE MORE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WILL
   PIVOT THROUGH THE BASE OF LINGERING BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING
   SHIFTING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
   
   THIS LATTER FEATURE COULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OF
   SOUTH ATLANTIC/EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...INTO THE FLORIDA
   PENINSULA.  WEAK DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE ABOVE/TO THE COOL
   SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
   POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH...AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WITHIN A PLUME
   OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.5+ INCHES.  THIS IS
   EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF
   OF MEXICO...ON A MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
   LAYER MEAN FLOW.
   
   ...FLORIDA...
   FRONTAL CONVECTION...WITH AN EXPECTED TENDENCY TO BECOME UNDERCUT BY
   A COOL STABLE SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS...SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN
   SUB-SEVERE TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT A
   PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE...BECOMING ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO
   NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
   BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  ALTHOUGH LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
   PARTICULARLY STEEP...VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
   MODEST UPDRAFT ROTATION...PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
   
   ..KERR.. 12/09/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z