Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 030535
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 PM CST WED JAN 02 2013
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...TX...
   MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL BREAK DOWN DURING THIS
   FORECAST PERIOD...AS A CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORCED INLAND
   ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
   PROGRESSION OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM IMPULSE ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SAME TIME...THE AMPLIFIED
   DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
   FRACTURED AND SHEARED.  RESULTANT SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES ARE
   EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCELERATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE STRONG CONFLUENT
   REGIME...BETWEEN THE DEEP POLAR VORTEX CENTERED NORTH OF HUDSON BAY
   AND A STRONG HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE CARIBBEAN.  HOWEVER...A PORTION
   MAY DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND CONSOLIDATE WITH THE
   REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW...NOW TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
   MEXICAN PLATEAU...TO FORM A BROADER SCALE CIRCULATION OVER THE
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.  
   
   WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR COOL/COLD
   SURFACE RIDGING...AND GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE NATION...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
   DOWNSTREAM OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU IMPULSE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
   DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   TEXAS.  THE UNSTABLE LAYER LIKELY WILL BE BASED ABOVE A DEEP SURFACE
   BASED STABLE LAYER...GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE 700 MB...WITH CAPE
   MOSTLY VERY WEAK AND CONFINED TO A SUB-FREEZING ENVIRONMENT.  THIS
   MAY EXTEND THROUGH THE -10 TO -20C LAYER THOUGH...WITH FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTIVE THAT MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS MAY EMANATE
   FROM SATURATED LAYERS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING LEVEL...WITH THE
   POSSIBILITY OF THE PRESENCE OF ENOUGH SUPERCOOLED CLOUD WATER TO
   CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION.  SOME CONVECTION WITH
   LIGHTNING DOES NOT SEEM COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE
   DAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND OVERNIGHT SOUTHEAST OF THE
   BIG BEND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
   STILL APPEAR BELOW THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A
   CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AT THE PRESENT TIME.
   
   ..KERR/DISPIGNA.. 01/03/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z