Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 101630
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1030 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013
   
   VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS SERN LA...PORTIONS
   OF SRN MS AND SWRN AL...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO MID SOUTH...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL OPEN AND EJECT
   NEWD THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE UPSTREAM TROUGH
   ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THE FORMER WILL BE ATTENDED BY A
   60-70 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND A CORRIDOR OF 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS
   OF 100-150 M/12 HR OVERSPREADING THE OZARK PLATEAU TODAY.
   
   IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER S-CNTRL OK AS OF
   16Z WILL WEAKEN TODAY WITH THIS FEATURE REFORMING AT THE
   INTERSECTION OF A WARM AND COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DEVELOP NNEWD
   THROUGH WRN INTO N-CNTRL AR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  THE ERN
   EXTENSION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE CONFLUENCE OF
   THE MS AND OH RIVERS WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN LA EWD INTO SWRN AL TODAY...
   
   12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST...INFLOW AIR MASS TO
   ONGOING QLCS...CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
   TO UPPER 60S AND LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 13-14 G/KG. 
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE
   DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION TODAY WITH THE SEASONALLY HIGH MOISTURE
   CONTENT LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 250-750 J/KG.
   
   THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE NW OF
   THE REGION COUPLED WITH A SUSTAINED 30-40 KT SLY LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT
   THE CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF QLCS INTO SERN MS/SWRN AL BY THIS
   AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE MOIST/LOW LCL BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE AND
   MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...EXPECT THE RISK FOR
   EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES TO PERSIST WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
   
   ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON TO THE W OF THE QLCS
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL LA.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO WRN MS THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...ERN PORTIONS OF THE OZARK/PLATEAU MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...
   
   RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL
   ALIGN WITH 500-MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO -16 TO -18 C AND POTENTIAL
   BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING
   250-500 J/KG WITHIN THE NWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR.  INCREASING
   FORCING FOR ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING UPPER
   TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ALONG AND
   AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL AR.
   
   DESPITE SOME VEER-BACK-VEER TENDENCIES...MODEL DERIVED HODOGRAPHS
   ACROSS THIS REGION EXHIBIT MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR OF 45-55 KT.  GIVEN THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
   TO SUSTAIN TSTMS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELL AND BOWING
   STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
   
   EXPECT THIS THREAT TO DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER SERN MO
   AND WRN TN OWING TO THE GRADUAL COOLING AND STABILIZATION OF THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..MEAD/SMITH.. 01/10/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z