Jan 15, 2013 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 15 19:29:29 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130115 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130115 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130115 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130115 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 151925
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CST TUE JAN 15 2013
   
   VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THUNDER IS BEING REMOVED FROM NW LA AND MUCH OF SRN AR. A FEW
   LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL LA PERHAPS INTO MS. ANY
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND COME TO AN END AFTER
   SUNSET.
   
   ..LEITMAN/DARROW.. 01/15/2013
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013/
   
   A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
   ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES TOWARDS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.  A
   SURFACE FRONT DRAPED FROM NRN GA SWWD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER
   WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD.  ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHTNING
   STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT
   ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY...OTHER REGIONS OF
   THE LOWER 48 WILL BE DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z