Jan 28, 2013 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 28 20:00:34 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130128 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130128 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130128 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130128 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 281956
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013
   
   VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF CNTRL OK...
   
   ...NWRN TX THROUGH CNTRL OK...SERN KS AND WRN MO...
   
   MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
   MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z IN CORRIDOR
   FROM NWRN TX THROUGH ERN KS/WRN MO WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AND
   EVOLVING WARM ADVECTION REGIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS
   WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT THE NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER
   WILL REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A TORNADO GIVEN LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND WIND
   PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. IN OK LAPSE RATES /THOUGH
   NOT LARGE/ WILL BE SUFFICIENT AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY/EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/28/2013
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013/
   
   ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...
   A BROAD SWATH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NOW IN
   THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL/ERN TX AND OK...AS WELL AS
   LA/AR.  THE NWD SPREAD OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH
   TONIGHT INTO ERN KS AND MO...WHICH WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL
   DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC TROUGH IS WELL TO
   THE WEST OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...AND
   THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE FELT ACROSS THE PLAINS
   UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.  
   
   ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
   NOT EXPECTED ALONG THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW TX
   ACROSS WRN OK INTO ERN KS.  THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
   WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY TONIGHT FROM ERN OK INTO SE
   KS/WRN MO ALONG THE MOIST AXIS AND STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH CONVECTION ROOTED
   VERY NEAR THE GROUND.  THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE FOR
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME ALONG THE
   INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM NW TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK AS THE PRIMARY
   WAVE BEGINS TO EMERGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THE COLD FRONT
   BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE.  FORECAST WIND PROFILES AND
   WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND
   BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND PERHAPS
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z