Jan 29, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 29 06:04:33 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130129 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130129 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130129 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130129 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 290601
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE MO...FAR WRN
   TN...AR...NW MS...NRN LA AND FAR NE TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY....LOWER MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY
   AND TN VALLEY...
   
   ...SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT
   PLAINS TODAY AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS
   THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET
   CORE MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
   LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM SE KS SWWD ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO NORTH TX.
   THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP A SEVERE THREAT AROUND DAYBREAK AS A
   BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
   APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD QUICKLY
   INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH A SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPING AND MOVING EWD
   ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA AND A
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM SERN MO SWWD ACROSS AR INTO NRN LA.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR THE BOOTHEEL OF MO SWWD
   TO LITTLE ROCK AND SHREVEPORT INCREASE SFC TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S
   F ALLOWING FOR INSTABILITY TO APPROACH MODERATE LEVELS. IN
   ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME STRONG AS THE RIGHT SIDE OF
   THE MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 TO 70 KT ALONG WITH LONG LOOPED
   HODOGRAPHS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. THE
   GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT
   INITIATE AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE FROM SE MO EXTENDING SWD ACROSS
   ECNTRL AR WHERE A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH BOWS AND ROTATING STORMS
   EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL-LINE ITSELF. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE
   FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KT SUGGESTING THE LINE WILL BE VERY
   EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ABOVE
   70 KT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREA WITH THE
   GREATEST THREAT IN ECNTRL AR WHERE THE GFS SUGGESTS THE APEX OF A
   LARGE-SCALE BOW COULD DEVELOP. MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THE SQUALL-LINE
   EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AFTER 06Z
   SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY....
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY AS A 90
   TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL
   PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO THIS
   MORNING WITH CONVECTION RAPIDLY EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS
   VALLEY AROUND MIDDAY. AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET
   OVERSPREADS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT
   SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CNTRL MO WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED LINE-SEGMENT
   MOVING EWD ACROSS THE VICINITY OF ST LOUIS EARLY THIS EVENING.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 03Z IN THE VICINITY OF ST LOUIS INCREASE
   SBCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AS 0-6 KM SHEAR REACHES 60 KT. THIS ALONG
   WITH VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXCEEDING 70 KT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
   FOR WIND DAMAGE. A SPLIT MID-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE IMPLIES THAT LIFT
   WILL BE VERY STRONG HELPING TO ORGANIZE A WELL-DEVELOP SQUALL-LINE.
   THIS LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT
   WHERE THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
   TORNADOES EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   ..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 01/29/2013
   
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