Jan 30, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 30 06:12:31 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130130 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130130 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130130 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130130 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 300609
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1209 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF
   COAST STATES...ERN GULF COAST STATES...CAROLINAS...SRN APPALACHIAN
   MTNS...CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND MID-ATLANTIC...
   
   ...GULF COAST STATES/SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS/CAROLINAS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MS VALLEY TODAY AS AN
   INTENSE 100 TO 125 KT MID-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE OH AND
   TN VALLEYS. ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET...A NEARLY
   CONTINUOUS SQUALL-LINE WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. THE
   SQUALL-LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS
   AND ECNTRL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS
   THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE MAY OCCUR THIS
   MORNING AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
   LINE. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LINE WILL BE MAINTAINED EWD ACROSS
   GA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LINE MOVING ACROSS
   THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS THIS EVENING.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE AT MIDDAY FROM ATLANTA
   SWWD ACROSS SERN AL SHOW SBCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1000
   J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 60 TO 70 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
   WITHIN THE SQUALL-LINE. THE LINE SHOULD BE AN EFFICIENT WIND DAMAGE
   PRODUCER DUE TO 60 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC. ISOLATED WIND
   GUSTS OVER 70 KT COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE
   SQUALL-LINE INTERACTS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. A FEW TORNADOES MAY
   ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS SWWD INTO THE ECNTRL GULF
   COAST STATES ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF AN IMPRESSIVE 60 TO 70 KT
   LOW-LEVEL JET.
   
   ...CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS/MID-ATLANTIC...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY
   TODAY AS A POWERFUL 100 TO 125 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD INTO THE
   OH AND TN VALLEYS. A SQUALL-LINE SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE ERN
   EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY EXTENDING SSWWD
   INTO CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN. THIS SQUALL-LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
   EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
   VIRGINIA'S BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
   REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND VIRGINIA'S...DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE VERY STRONG.
   THIS SHOULD ENABLE THE SQUALL-LINE TO BE MAINTAINED THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE.
   ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH BOWING
   LINE-SEGMENTS DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THE GREATER THREAT
   SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL-LINE. THE
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED NWD ACROSS THE
   MID-ATLANTIC WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE VERY WEAK.
   
   ..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 01/30/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z