Jan 31, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 31 00:38:33 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130131 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130131 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130131 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130131 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 310034
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0634 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013
   
   VALID 310100Z - 311200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN U.S....
   
   ...ERN U.S...
   
   MID LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO REFORM ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS
   EVENING THEN EJECT INTO THE DELMARVA BY 31/12Z.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD
   UNDOUBTEDLY ASSIST THE EWD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL CONVECTION AS IT
   SPREADS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TOWARD THE COASTAL MIDDLE ATLANTIC LATE
   TONIGHT.  EARLY THIS EVENING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED...AND STRONGLY
   FORCED...LINE OF CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED FROM WRN NC...SWWD ACROSS
   WRN SC INTO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE.  SRN PORTION OF THIS LINE IS
   MOVING EAST AT ROUGHLY 30-35KT AND SHOULD ADVANCE OFF THE GA COAST
   BY 05Z.  FARTHER NORTH...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS YET TO ORGANIZE
   AS SHARPLY AS SRN SEGMENTS BUT SEVERAL SHORTER BOW-TYPE LINE
   SEGMENTS HAVE EVOLVED FROM CNTRL MD INTO NRN VA.  AS STRONGER
   FORCING SPREADS ACROSS THIS REGION THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL
   INCREASE IN ORGANIZED BANDS OF CONVECTION ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
   SCNTRL VA TOWARD THE DELMARVA.
   
   ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY SUBSTANTIAL ACROSS THE
   MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...PER 00Z SOUNDINGS...INTENSE WIND
   FIELDS AND STRONG FORCING SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE NOTED WITH
   ORGANIZED FRONTAL CONVECTION AS PROGRESSES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
   COAST.  IF MORE DISCRETE UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO EVOLVE WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE NOTED.
   
   ..DARROW.. 01/31/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z