Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 021239
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0639 AM CST SAT FEB 02 2013
   
   VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
   LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
   PROGRESS EWD AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS DEAMPLIFIES. 
   PRIMARY FEATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ONE
   WILL MOVE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS ACROSS THE SE STATES AND OFF THE
   CAROLINA COAST WHILE ANOTHER PROGRESSES QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE NRN
   PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY. 
   
   EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SFC LOW OVER W TX WITH A
   WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
   ACROSS IL. AS THE CNTRL PLAINS SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD TODAY...THIS WEAK
   TROUGH WILL ALSO PROGRESS EWD...PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS TX
   AND THE LWR MS VALLEY.
   
   SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PROHIBIT
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CONUS. SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
   ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS THE CNTRL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVE THROUGH BUT POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP PROFILES TOO
   WARM FOR THUNDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD...SOME
   TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST AFTER 00Z.
   
   ..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 02/02/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z