Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 051628
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1028 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2013
   
   VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...S TX...
   A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRACKING EWD ACROSS NW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
   MOVE INTO S TX BY 12Z/WED. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...INCREASING BOUNDARY
   LAYER MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
   AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS WITH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DESPITE A FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
   BE PRESENT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE...ONLY A CONDITIONAL
   SEVERE THREAT...DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM...WILL EXIST
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATER TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE IMPINGES ON
   THE AREA...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
   AS DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. WHILE SOME SMALL HAIL
   MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL
   REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING/STABILIZATION.
   
   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 02/05/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z