Feb 27, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 27 00:38:33 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130227 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130227 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130227 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130227 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 270034
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0634 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2013
   
   VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN NC...
   
   ...EASTERN NC...
   
   MOIST WARM SECTOR HAS ADVANCED TO WITHIN A FEW COUNTIES OF THE VA
   BORDER WITH COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. 
   ALTHOUGH WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY
   WEAK...SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY HAS DEVELOPED SUCH THAT CONVECTION HAS
   GRADUALLY DEEPENED/ORGANIZED ALONG THE WIND SHIFT FROM ROBESON
   COUNTY NC TO JOHNSTON COUNTY NC.  THIS ACTIVITY IS SHIFTING EAST AT
   ROUGHLY 15KT WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE MOVING NE ALONG EVOLVING
   LINE AT 30KT.  STRONG SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT
   LINEAR DEVELOPMENT AS EVOLVING SQUALL LINE ADVANCES ACROSS ERN
   NC...THOUGH CLOUD TOPS MAY STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN HEIGHTS NECESSARY FOR
   LIGHTNING.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT AND
   ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   EMERGE.  GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER
   COOLING REDUCES AN ALREADY MEAGER INSTABILITY AIRMASS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 02/27/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z