Feb 27, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Wed Feb 27 00:38:33 UTC 2013 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 270034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2013 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN NC... ...EASTERN NC... MOIST WARM SECTOR HAS ADVANCED TO WITHIN A FEW COUNTIES OF THE VA BORDER WITH COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WEDGED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ALTHOUGH WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY HAS DEVELOPED SUCH THAT CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY DEEPENED/ORGANIZED ALONG THE WIND SHIFT FROM ROBESON COUNTY NC TO JOHNSTON COUNTY NC. THIS ACTIVITY IS SHIFTING EAST AT ROUGHLY 15KT WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE MOVING NE ALONG EVOLVING LINE AT 30KT. STRONG SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT LINEAR DEVELOPMENT AS EVOLVING SQUALL LINE ADVANCES ACROSS ERN NC...THOUGH CLOUD TOPS MAY STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN HEIGHTS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMERGE. GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING REDUCES AN ALREADY MEAGER INSTABILITY AIRMASS. ..DARROW.. 02/27/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z