Feb 27, 2013 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 27 12:41:34 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130227 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130227 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130227 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130227 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 271237
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 AM CST WED FEB 27 2013
   
   VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SW TO NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT
   POSITIONED OVER FAR SRN FL AND THE KEYS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
   GRADUALLY SHIFT SWD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER IMPULSE
   LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AT 12Z EJECTS NEWD TOWARD THE MID
   ATLANTIC REGION. A MOIST AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...PW
   VALUES AOA 1.7 IN./ AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TOWARD WEAK MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG
   INVOF THE FRONT. THIS MAY AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK FORCING
   FOR ASCENT.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/27/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z