Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 010443
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1043 PM CST THU FEB 28 2013
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
   A MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX BETWEEN A HIGH-AMPLITUDE WRN-STATES RIDGE
   AND A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW E OF THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT
   SSEWD...SERVING TO AMPLIFY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
   PLAINS. A POCKET OF 500-MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -32C ACCOMPANYING
   THIS TROUGH WILL OVERLAY THE SRN PLAINS DURING PEAK HEATING.
   AND...WITH THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DCVA PRECEDING THE TROUGH...UPPER
   DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAX...AND WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SEWD-MOVING SFC TROUGH...SCATTERED
   CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
   SWRN OK AND THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SEWD
   TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND THE ARW-KF CONTROL MEMBER OF THE SREF
   SUGGEST THAT CAPE WILL EXTEND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP INTO ICING LAYERS
   AMIDST SBCAPE VALUES FROM 100 TO 200 J/KG TO PROMOTE SPORADIC
   LIGHTNING STRIKES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SVR
   STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
   
   ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THE LACK OF THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY
   IS FORECAST TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY SAT.
   
   ..COHEN/GRAMS.. 03/01/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z