Mar 15, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 15 04:37:33 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130315 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130315 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130315 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130315 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area(sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 150434
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2013
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO DEAMPLIFICATION
   DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL WITH TIME. SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW WILL TURN SEWD AFTER CRESTING
   UPPER RIDGE AND CONTINUE ESEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT
   LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD THROUGH THE
   NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHILE A WARM FRONT SHIFTS EWD
   THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.
   
   ...OH VALLEY...
   
   FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF HAS RETURNED TO SLY. AS THE LARGE AREA OF
   HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF SHIFTS EWD...AXIS OF MODIFIED CP AIR
   WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH
   THE LOW-MID MS VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE WILL REACH THE OH VALLEY BY
   FRIDAY NIGHT SUPPORTED BY A STRENGTHENING WSWLY LLJ. A PLUME OF
   STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT EWD ABOVE THE
   AXIS OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF
   MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER A PORTION OF THE MID MS THROUGH
   OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
   AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UP TO 40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER MIGHT SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MODEST INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM LIMITED
   MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR.
   
   ..DIAL/MOSIER.. 03/15/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z