Mar 15, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Fri Mar 15 04:37:33 UTC 2013 | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 150434 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2013 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO DEAMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL WITH TIME. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW WILL TURN SEWD AFTER CRESTING UPPER RIDGE AND CONTINUE ESEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHILE A WARM FRONT SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. ...OH VALLEY... FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF HAS RETURNED TO SLY. AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF SHIFTS EWD...AXIS OF MODIFIED CP AIR WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE LOW-MID MS VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE WILL REACH THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT SUPPORTED BY A STRENGTHENING WSWLY LLJ. A PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT EWD ABOVE THE AXIS OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER A PORTION OF THE MID MS THROUGH OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UP TO 40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER MIGHT SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MODEST INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. ..DIAL/MOSIER.. 03/15/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |