Mar 16, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Sat Mar 16 04:46:32 UTC 2013 | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 160443 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE U.S. SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW...WHILE A SRN STREAM IMPULSE ADVANCES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND SRN ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES. A WEAK SFC LOW WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY IN WAKE OF THE LOW...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY. ...TN VALLEY...SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA... THE GULF IS STILL UNDERGOING MODIFICATION WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 NEAR THE TX COAST AND 50S FARTHER INLAND. AXIS OF MODIFIED CP AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC WARM SECTOR SATURDAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED. CONCURRENTLY...PLUME OF 7-7.5 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ADVECTING ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS...COMBINED WITH DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG EXPECTED. SREF MEMBERS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MORE CAPE /400-600 J/KG/ THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH VA/MD DURING THE DAY. THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS ALONG WITH STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. OVERALL THREAT AND COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...A PORTION OF THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN A LATER DAY 1 OUTLOOK. ..DIAL/MOSIER.. 03/16/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |