Mar 16, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 16 04:46:32 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130316 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130316 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130316 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130316 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 160443
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1143 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   A LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE U.S.
   SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW...WHILE A
   SRN STREAM IMPULSE ADVANCES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND SRN ROCKIES.
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES. A WEAK SFC LOW WILL SHIFT
   THROUGH THE OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE
   REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY IN WAKE OF THE
   LOW...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
   DURING THE DAY.
   
   ...TN VALLEY...SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA...
   
   THE GULF IS STILL UNDERGOING MODIFICATION WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60
   NEAR THE TX COAST AND 50S FARTHER INLAND. AXIS OF MODIFIED CP AIR
   WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
   WARM SECTOR SATURDAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
   UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED. CONCURRENTLY...PLUME OF 7-7.5 C/KM
   700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ADVECTING ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS...COMBINED
   WITH DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN SUGGESTS INSTABILITY
   WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG EXPECTED.
   SREF MEMBERS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MORE CAPE /400-600 J/KG/ THAN
   WHAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
   TRENDS.
   
   CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF
   ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
   SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH VA/MD DURING
   THE DAY. THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF THE MORNING
   STORMS...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SWD
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS ALONG WITH STRONG
   UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. OVERALL THREAT AND COVERAGE OF ANY
   SEVERE EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY WEAK
   INSTABILITY. IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
   THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...A PORTION OF THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE
   UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN A LATER DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
   
   ..DIAL/MOSIER.. 03/16/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z