Mar 23, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 23 05:57:34 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130323 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130323 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130323 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130323 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 246,544 24,927,040 Dallas, TX...Jacksonville, FL...Ft. Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...New Orleans, LA...
   SPC AC 230553
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX TO THE DEEP
   SOUTH...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN A WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   WILL DIG FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE OZARK PLATEAU BY EARLY SUN.
   THIS SHOULD INDUCE EVENTUAL CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID-SOUTH SUN
   MORNING. A SECONDARY/WEAKER CYCLONE MAY TRACK ALONG A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY FROM SERN TX TO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY. A SEASONABLY RICH GULF AIR MASS WILL LIE S OF THE FRONT
   WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS ERN TX TODAY AND IN THE
   DEEP SOUTH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS ADVANCEMENT SHOULD BE
   CURTAILED BY ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE/CONVECTION OCCURRING N OF THE
   FRONT.
   
   ...ERN TX TO THE DEEP SOUTH...
   RELATIVELY MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENARIO APPEARS LIKELY TO UNFOLD DURING
   THE PERIOD GIVEN DISPARATE HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY MODEL
   GUIDANCE. THIS BREEDS LOWER-THAN-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN HIGHLIGHTING
   CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL IN ANY INDIVIDUAL
   HAZARD...DESPITE A BROAD SWATH OF STRONG MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS.
   
   SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING N OF THE FRONT IN PARTS
   OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. GUIDANCE DIFFERS
   WITH THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL NWD ADVANCEMENT OF
   THE FRONT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN ONGOING SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
   BOUNDARY...IT APPEARS THAT MASS RESPONSE WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE
   SURFACE. STILL...GIVEN RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A THREAT
   FOR SEVERE HAIL SHOULD EXIST AS THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY EVOLVES
   DURING THE MORNING ACROSS ERN TX AND TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN
   THE AFTERNOON.
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS MAY FORM BY MIDDAY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN
   GULF COAST AS PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS NE OF THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH WOULD RETARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
   BOUNDARY IN SRN AL/GA DURING THE DAY. MORE PROBABLE ADVANCEMENT OF
   THE FRONT SHOULD OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WITH STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST HEATING...MODERATE BUOYANCY MAY
   DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT
   FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIMITS TORNADO
   POTENTIAL.
   
   GREATER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD PRIMARILY BE RELEGATED
   TO SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY TO DEEP SOUTH AND CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. GUIDANCE
   DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE DEGREE OF CYCLOGENESIS AND THE
   RESULTANT PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IN THE DEEP SOUTH. IN
   ADDITION...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY EXTENSIVE CONVECTION
   EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...THE NWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT APPEARS
   QUESTIONABLE IN MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   STRENGTHEN GREATLY BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY VEERED. THIS MAY YIELD
   A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   PRIMARILY FROM SERN MS TO SWRN GA/ERN FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..GRAMS/LEITMAN.. 03/23/2013
   
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