| Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| |||||||||
SPC AC 041556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 AM CDT THU APR 04 2013 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF FL AND FAR SE GA... ...SYNOPSIS... ERN OK/TX UPR TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO LA THIS EVE BEFORE REACHING THE FL PANHANDLE/N CNTRL GULF EARLY FRI. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A WEAKER DISTURBANCE NOW ENTERING THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT SHOULD FURTHER DEAMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA LATER TODAY/EARLY TNGT. AT LWR LVLS...WEAK SFC LOW NOW NEAR PENSACOLA EXPECTED TO REFORM ENEWD TO JUST OFF THE GA CST BY EVE...BEFORE DEEPENING AND CONTINUING NEWD ALONG SC/NC CST EARLY FRI. THIS SHOULD ALLOW S GA WEDGE FRONT TO SAG A LITTLE SWD INTO PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. WHILE A SECONDARY SFC WAVE MAY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TNGT OVER THE FAR NERN GULF AS THE MAIN UPR TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE LWR MS VLY...CONVERGENCE WITH THE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED DEEPENING OF LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA CST. FARTHER S...WEAK W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS IN CNTRL FL EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STNRY TODAY...REINFORCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/RAIN WITH MCS NOW ENTERING THE WRN PART OF THE PENINSULA. THIS BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLY THE E CST SEA BREEZE FRONT TO ITS S...SHOULD SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS THIS PERIOD. ...FL/FAR SE GA TODAY THROUGH TNGT... SATELLITE AND SFC DATA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/NW FL INDICATE THAT THE MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OK/TX UPR TROUGH ATTM EXTENDS FROM SSW FROM THE PENSACOLA SFC WAVE INTO THE CNTRL GULF. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NERN GULF LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN PRESENCE OF THE MOST RECENT IN A SERIES OF LARGE MCSS THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE FRONT AND OVERTURNED AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN GULF...EXPECT THAT THE MAIN AREA FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SIDE OF THE MCS AS IT MOVES/DEVELOPS GENERALLY ESE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE OF PENINSULA LATER TODAY/TNGT...WITH OTHER STORMS LIKELY FORMING AHEAD OF IT. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY WILL BE AMPLE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS ACROSS MUCH OF FL...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI AS UPR TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION AND 700 MB WSW WINDS INCREASE TO AOA 40 KTS. COUPLED WITH 25-30 KT SLY NEAR-SFC FLOW...SETUP COULD FOSTER LOW-LVL MESO FORMATION/TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN ANY SUSTAINED STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GIVEN MOISTURE-RICH LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ AND WEAK CIN/MODERATE SFC HEATING EXPECTED THERE. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM S OF THE BOUNDARY IN STRENGTHENING/CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW. WHILE THE OVERALL SVR THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS GREAT OVER NRN AND N CNTRL FL AS THAT FARTHER S...WILL MAINTAIN LWR CONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES IN THAT REGION FOR BOTH /1/ POSSIBLE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT TODAY IN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG AND S OF WEDGE FRONT...AND /2/ FOR POTENTIAL ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH LATE TNGT/EARLY FRI MOVING INLAND FROM THE NERN GULF. ..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 04/04/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |