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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 071629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NW OK...MUCH OF KS...AND WRN/CENTRAL MO... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT JET STREAK WILL DIG SEWD TO CA/NV THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE GRADUAL DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SE STATES. IN BETWEEN...A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SPEED MAXIMA WILL PROGRESS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE LARGELY WLY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ...NW OK/KS TO CENTRAL MO THROUGH TONIGHT... 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES CONFIRM ONGOING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO TX/OK/KS FROM THE WRN GULF BASIN...THOUGH OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES TOO HIGH WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE EML NOTED IN THE AMA/MAF SOUNDINGS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NW TX AND WRN OK...LIKELY PROVIDING A SUFFICIENT CAP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION PROSPECTS ALONG THE WRN OK/NW TX DRYLINE AND NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. THE N EDGE OF THE WARMER EML RESIDES BETWEEN AMA AND DDC...AND EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE NEAR AND N OF THE KS/OK BORDER. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ACCOUNTING FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S WITH SOME CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 58-60 F...SUPPORT MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG WITH ONLY SMALL CIN ACROSS NW OK AND ADJACENT AREAS OF KS. ADDITIONALLY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX ALOFT OVER NRN NM AS OF MID MORNING...WHICH SHOULD REACH THE NW OK/SW KS BORDER REGION BY THIS EVENING. THUS...THE EXPECTATION FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR N OF THE OK/KS BORDER APPEARS REASONABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT FORM IN THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT...AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH ANY SUPERCELLS ON THE N SIDE OF THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ. OTHERWISE...A NWD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/NE KS INTO MO...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 04/07/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |