Apr 9, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||||||
Updated: Tue Apr 9 06:03:36 UTC 2013 | |||||||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||||||
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||||||
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||
SPC AC 090600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT TUE APR 09 2013 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL OK...SRN OK AND NORTH TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...NW AR...MO...SRN IA AND WRN IL... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS ERN KS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F ACROSS CNTRL OK AND NORTH TX. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION BEGINNING FIRST IN NRN KS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...QUICKLY EXPANDING SSWWD ACROSS SRN KS AND CNTRL OK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO NCNTRL TX BY EARLY EVENING. THE STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH COUPLED LOW AND MID-LEVEL JETS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT OKLAHOMA CITY AND WICHITA FALLS AT 00Z/WED SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE AS A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE SHEAR ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. 0-1 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES COULD OCCUR FROM THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA SSWWD TO AROUND WICHITA FALLS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS APPEARS TO BE MOST IDEAL. ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN EXISTS ABOUT THE TIMING OF INITIATION IN SRN OK AND NORTH TX...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST. FURTHER TO THE NORTH FROM ECNTRL KS SWD INTO NERN OK...THE MODELS APPEAR TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THERE. HOWEVER...THE LINE SHOULD BE INTENSE WITH ROTATING CELL ELEMENTS. SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES AS WELL. ...MID-MO VALLEY/MO/SRN IA/WRN IL... A SHORTWAVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. A MID-LEVEL JET TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO NOSE INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS SERN NEB WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD NEAR THE IA-MO STATE LINE INTO NCNTRL IL. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MID-AFTERNOON. A LACK OF A CAPPING INVERSION COULD ENABLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AROUND MID-DAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TAKING PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/WED FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY EWD TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD IL SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MORE DISCRETE CELLS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST...MAY OBTAIN BETTER ORGANIZATION. ROTATING STORMS AND/OR BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. A FEW TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL EXISTING WITH CELLS THAT CROSS THE WARM FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING WHEN LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED. ..BROYLES/GARNER.. 04/09/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |