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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 240042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2013 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX OVER NRN NM AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD TO THE MO OZARKS BY EARLY MORNING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD TO S TX WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS E AND SWD THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF TX AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEYS. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH PRIMARILY ANAFRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ...PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT... LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A MODESTLY MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER /LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS/ AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THIS REGION. DESPITE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT FAVORING AREAS FARTHER N OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /250-750 J/KG MLCAPE/ AND STRONG WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED THIS EVENING/S AREA RAOBS WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL LOW SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT. ...SERN TX LATE TONIGHT... FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ATTENDANT TO A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM NRN MEXICO INTO TX WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO ELEVATED TSTMS WITHIN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...THE PRESENCE OF 8 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES /REFERENCE 00Z/24 DRT AND CRP RAOBS/ AND MODERATELY STRONG CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..SMITH.. 04/24/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |
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