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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 250054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT WED APR 24 2013 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST PARTS OF CONUS. EXCEPTION WILL BE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER SRN ROCKIES REGION...IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED LOW NOW MOVING NEWD TOWARD SRN CA COAST NEAR SAN. THAT LOW IS FCST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING AND AFTER LAST HEW HOURS OF PERIOD...BUT WILL REMAIN PART OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER LH...OH AND KY WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES...NRN APPALACHIANS AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY REGIONS. SECOND PERTURBATION...EMBEDDED IN GREAT LAKES CYCLONIC-FLOW REGIME...WAS EVIDENT IN 23Z MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF WRN MN BORDER THEN SSWWD OVER ERN NEB. THIS FEATURE WILL PIVOT EWD TO LM AND CENTRAL POTIONS UPPER MI BY 12Z. AT SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM SFC LOW OVER FAR ERN ONT...SSWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL NY...THEN SWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN WV...NWRN GA...SERN MS...AND SERN LA...BECOMING ILL-DEFINED OVER N-CENTRAL/NWRN GULF AMIDST LARGE AREA OF MARITIME CONVECTION AND RELATED OUTFLOW. BY 12Z...FRONT SHOULD PROCEED TO CENTRAL/ERN MAINE...OFFSHORE MID-ATLC REGION...NEAR CAROLINAS OUTER BANKS...SERN GA...AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY...IA...WI AND IL JUST AHEAD OF MID-UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION. ...INTERIOR MID-ATLC REGION... WW 138 HAS BEEN CANCELED. PREFRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS THAT IS DIABATICALLY STABILIZING WITH TIME...AND AS IT OUTPACES ANY CONTRIBUTION TO SFC THETAE RELATED TO MOISTURE ADVECTION. MEANWHILE...IN ITS WAKE...STRONGLY FORCED...NARROW AND LOW-TOPPED BAND OF SHOWERS HAS INCREASED STEADILY IN INTENSITY ALONG SFC COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS WRN NY AND NRN PA. NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL WAA IN WAKE OF EARLIER ACTIVITY MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF NEAR-PEAK INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION. ACTIVITY SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTS BELOW 50 KT SVR CRITERIA...BUT ISOLATED/MINOR WIND DAMAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... LOW-TOPPED BAND OF SHOWERS AND BRIEF TSTMS...ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND SFC COLD FRONT AND SWATH OF DCVA/UVV PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HAS PRODUCED 42-44 KT MEASURED GUSTS AT A FEW STATIONS IN NRN IA AND SERN MN. APEX OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOSING LTG AND WILL BE MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER-THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER...CHARACTERIZED BY SUBSTANTIAL WLY SFC FLOW COMPONENT AND DIABATIC COOLING. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR SVR GUSTS APPEARS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE MRGL UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 04/25/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |
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