Apr 30, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Tue Apr 30 00:42:33 UTC 2013 | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 300038 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF IA INTO FAR SWRN WI... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT BEHIND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SLY WINDS WITH OVER 50 KT AT 850 MB WILL MAINTAIN WARMTH AND MIXING FROM KS INTO IA...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER STILL EXPECTED MAINLY OVER IA AND MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FROM ERN ND INTO NRN MN OVERNIGHT. TO THE S...A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN TX IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED STORMS...WITH MARGINAL HAIL/WIND/TOR THREAT. ...NERN KS INTO IA AND SRN WI... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE REGION INDICATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT FROM TOP WAS ABOUT 55 F...WHICH STILL RESULTS IN ABOUT 2000 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS THE REGION. LIFT MAINLY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS IA AND INTO WI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MCD 580. ...S CNTRL TX... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF INSTABILITY REMAIN...THEREFORE A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ...ERN ND INTO NRN MN... A LOW CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL OR WIND WILL EXIST WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECISELY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IS IN QUESTION...WITH VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS N CNTRL MN...WHEN THE FRONT IS CLOSEST TO THE RELATIVE MOIST AXIS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD SEVERE PROBS AT THIS TIME. ..JEWELL.. 04/30/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |