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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 010047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2013 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN KS INTO NEB...IA AND WI... WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS NEB AND PERHAPS FAR NRN KS AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND MARGINAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. INCREASING CIN WILL PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT S OF THE SURFACE FRONT. OTHER CELLS WILL PERSIST NEWD FROM IA INTO WI...ALSO IN A NARROW ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WEAKER INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT MINIMAL. ...W TX... A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS W CNTRL TX WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP. WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT ATOP SELY SURFACE FLOW IS HELPING THESE STORMS TO FORWARD PROPAGATE...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY ONCE THEY REACH THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER A FEW COUNTIES TO THE E. ..JEWELL.. 05/01/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |
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