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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 061630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2013 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF UPSTATE NC AND SW VA... ...SYNOPSIS... WITH BLOCKY PATTERN CONTINUING AND THE WLYS REMAINING CONFINED TO CNTRL CANADA...ONLY SLOW EWD PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLOSED LOWS NOW OFF THE CA CST AND OVER THE TN VLY. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW IN GA WILL PIVOT NE AROUND THE TN VLY LOW...ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE CAROLINAS/SRN APPALACHIANS. IN THE WEST...A SIMILAR FEATURE WILL MOVE NE INTO THE WRN GRT BASIN. A LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE ALSO WILL ADVANCE E IN SRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS NM/W TX. MODIFIED POLAR AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE NATION AT LWR LVLS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER...TO YIELD ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CONVECTION/STORMS IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WEST. IN ADDITION...A TONGUE OF MARITIME AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NWWD INTO NC...AHEAD OF SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH GA UPR IMPULSE. ...NC/SRN VA THIS AFTN/EVE... CONTINUED ESELY...LOW-LVL UPSLOPE FLOW...COUPLED SFC HEATING AND MID-LVL COOLING/ASCENT WITH APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE...SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF SCTD TO BROKEN STORMS ALONG NWD-MOVING CONFLUENCE AXIS IN NC. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO TO MID 60S F FROM SW VA SEWD INTO CSTL NC COULD YIELD SBCAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. DEEP WIND PROFILES LIKELY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THOSE NOW PRESENT OVER REGION...WITH MODEST SPEEDS AND MEAN FLOW/DEEP SHEAR LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE ZONE. PROFILES WILL...HOWEVER...EXHIBIT APPRECIABLE LOW-LVL VEERING. TAKEN TOGETHER...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHORT BANDS OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS...POSSIBLY WITH OCCASIONAL...EMBEDDED...WEAKLY ROTATING STRUCTURES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY A DMGG WIND GUST/BRIEF TORNADO. FARTHER SW...LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TOO DRY/COOL TO POSE A RISK FOR SVR HAIL CLOSER TO UPR LOW CENTER IN TN/WRN NC/WRN SC/GA. ..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 05/06/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |