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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 102000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...TX... OUTLOOK ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN ACCORDANCE WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXITING THE UPPER TX COAST. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INTO THIS EVENING IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/WEST-CENTRAL TX AND EVENTUALLY PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY...AS STORMS/SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE OUT OF MEXICO. SEE SEVERE TSTM WATCH 156 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ...UPPER OH VALLEY... LITTLE CHANGE TO PRIOR OUTLOOK REASONING...ALTHOUGH SPATIAL ADJUSTMENTS TO SLIGHT RISK WERE MADE /REMOVED/ IN THE WAKE OF UPPER OH VALLEY QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX. DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 05/10/2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013/ ...TX... BOTH VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY AND SFC ANALYSIS REVEAL A PLETHORA OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ACROSS TX TODAY. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF RELATIVELY STRONGER WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50KT PERSISTS OVER THE SRN HALF OF TX ON THE SRN/ERN FLANK OF A POSITIVELY TILTED LARGE SCALE TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO NRN BAJA. PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL STREAM WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH AREAS OF STRONGER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW SURGES...GREATEST SFC-BASED INSTABILITY NOW RESIDES ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX WHERE STRONG CAPPING WILL LIKELY PERSIST DUE TO PRONOUNCED EML PLUME. FROM TRANS-PECOS REGION ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...AREAS OF STRONGER HEATING AND MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AMIDST MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION/PERSISTENCE. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE GREATEST HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS INTERACTING WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. ...UPPER OH VALLEY... WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WILL INTENSIFY FROM THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AS FRONTAL WAVE/LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH AFTERNOON SBCAPE PERHAPS PEAKING AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY MAGNITUDE OF FORCING/ASCENT AND AREAS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING FROM NRN WV ACROSS SERN OH AND INTO PA. HERE EXPECT A GRADUAL UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE VIGOR AMIDST SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |