May 11, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 11 00:48:35 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130511 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130511 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130511 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130511 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 64,110 11,349,279 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...
   SPC AC 110044
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013
   
   VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TX...
   
   ...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN TX...
   STORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK S/SE ACROSS PARTS OF S-CENTRAL
   TX TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST TONIGHT. THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME
   TENDENCY TOWARD DEVELOPING LINEAR SEGMENTS AND COULD PERIODICALLY
   PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE AN EML PER
   00Z CRP RAOB INDICATES LARGE HAIL ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE. HI-RES
   CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE
   EWD OFF THE GULF COAST OVERNIGHT AND CLIP PORTIONS OF THE SE TX AND
   SRN LA COASTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW WIND/HAIL PROBS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
   IN THESE AREAS TO REFLECT THAT POSSIBILITY. ADDITIONAL STORMS
   CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF E-CENTRAL MEXICO MAY
   TRACK EWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
   TEXAS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...AND TENNIS BALL SIZE
   HAIL WAS REPORTED IN FRIO COUNTY TX AROUND 00Z. 
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...
   WEAKENING LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO CNTRL NY SWD ACROSS CNTRL
   AND ERN PA INTO NRN VA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
   STABILIZATION THIS EVENING. FAST STORM MOTION/DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD
   STILL PRODUCE A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THE
   NIGHTTIME HOURS.
   
   ...S FL...
   BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WITH DIURNAL COOLING HAS LEAD TO
   DECREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. LINGERING STORMS ALONG
   THE COAST SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH LITTLE
   THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINING.
   
   ..LEITMAN/PETERS.. 05/11/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z