May 19, 2013 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 19 16:19:37 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central united states later today and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

Categorical Graphic
20130519 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130519 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130519 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130519 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 62,039 6,352,605 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Overland Park, KS...
SLIGHT 305,132 26,681,712 Dallas, TX...Ft. Worth, TX...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...Arlington, TX...
   SPC AC 191615
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1115 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
   
   VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO
   TONIGHT...SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH
   THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION.  IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...MID/UPPER FLOW HAS ALREADY
   STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A BELT CURVING
   CYCLONICALLY OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  WITHIN THIS
   REGIME...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES/SPEED MAXIMA HAVE AND WILL
   CONTINUE TO EMERGE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE ADDITIONAL
   PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
   
   EAST OF THE ROCKIES...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN VERY STEEP OVER A
   BROAD AREA...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   SOUTHWARD TO GULF COASTAL AREAS.  ATOP A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER...THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
   AND SIZABLE CAPE ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY REGION.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...INCLUDING ANOTHER OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
   WEATHER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
   INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI.
   
   ADDITIONALLY...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK CYCLONIC BELT OF
   FLOW DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
   REGION...LIFT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO
   GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.  MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL DO
   NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION IN STRONGER STORMS...PARTICULARLY
   WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF AN ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTER NOW
   ADVANCING WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF ATLANTA GA.
   
   ...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING
   NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
   THIS FEATURE IS AIDING INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  SOME SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY... BUT A MORE
   SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAY AWAIT FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS IOWA NORTHWARD INTO
   PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LATER TODAY.
   
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
   WAKE OF THIS INITIAL IMPULSE...AS ANOTHER CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST OF
   THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO
   BECOME FOCUSED ALONG/SOUTH AND EAST OF A REMNANT CONVECTIVELY
   GENERATED BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY CURVES FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS
   INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.  A NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO
   SOUTHERN KANSAS IS STILL EXPECTED...AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID
   REFRESH APPEARS REASONABLE SUGGESTING INITIATION OF STORMS ALONG THE
   INTERSECTION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AN EASTWARD ADVANCING
   DRYLINE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BY
   19-20Z.
   
   AIDED BY FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM
   NOSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...UPSCALE
   CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO A SUBSTANTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS
   EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR...40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF
   THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF THE RISK FOR TORNADOES.  HIGHEST
   PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...MAY BE
   SUPERCELLS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM...ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO PARTS OF WEST
   CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AS WELL AS WITH STORMS INITIATING AND
   ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE DRYLINE...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
   OKLAHOMA.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE 850 MB JET ACROSS EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL MAINTAIN TORNADIC POTENTIAL
   WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ONE OR TWO LONG-LIVED TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.
   
   ..KERR/ROGERS.. 05/19/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z