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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 241256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK WILL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY OVER NW CANADA...N OF ELONGATING LOW OVER WA/THE NRN RCKYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PLNS...ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE RIDGE. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...NONE OF WHICH APPEAR NOTEWORTHY ATTM...WILL TRACK NEWD FROM THE CNTRL GRT BASIN INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLNS. AT THE SFC...SELY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE HIGH PLNS...ON W SIDE OF RETREATING SFC RIDGE. WHILE THIS FLOW WILL REMAIN ONLY MODESTLY MOIST...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF FOCUSED UPSLOPE FLOW/LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE. ...CNTRL HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY OVER FAR ERN CO AND WRN KS/NEB IN PERSISTENT SELY LOW-LVL FLOW...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPR 50S/LOW 60S F. IN WAKE OF WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE/CLOUD BAND MOVING ACROSS REGION...SFC HEATING COUPLED WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD PROMOTE MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...WITH AFTN SBCAPE OF 1500 TO PERHAPS 2000 J/KG EXPECTED. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO FLOW...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG TERRAIN-INDUCED FEATURES SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD AFTN STORMS...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN MOVING/DEVELOPING NE ACROSS THE HIGH PLNS INTO THE EVE. 30-35 KT SWLY 500 MB WINDS ATOP 30 KT SLY 850 MB FLOW WILL YIELD AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. EXPECTED NOCTURNAL INCREASE/VEERING OF LLJ...ASCENT WITH PASSING DISTURBANCES IN UPR LVL JET...AND NW-SE ORIENTATION OF THICKNESS CONTOURS OVER NEB/KS SUGGEST UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE LINES/CLUSTERS BEFORE THE STORMS WEAKEN LATER TNGT. ...SRN HIGH PLNS LATE AFTN/EVE... WDLY SCTD AFTN/EVE STORMS ALSO APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM/FAR W TX. THESE COULD STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE E TOWARD THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS OVER THE PLNS. WNWLY DEEP SHEAR ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELLS WITH ISOLD SVR HAIL AND HIGH WIND...GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT. ...S CNTRL/SE TX THROUGH TNGT... S CNTRL TX MCS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SE TODAY...DRIVEN MAINLY BY FORWARD-PROPAGATION INTO MOIST...SSELY LOW-LVL FLOW. SYSTEM ALSO MAY BE SUPPORTED BY APPARENT MID/UPR-LVL CIRCULATION...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED...NOW SE OF SJT. COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND FAIRLY HIGH PW /AROUND 1.75 INCHES/ MAY FOSTER ISOLD STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL OR A BRIEF TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WEAK DEEP SHEAR SHOULD...HOWEVER... MINIMIZE DEGREE...DURATION...AND ORGANIZATION OF ANY SUCH THREAT. ..CORFIDI/MARSH.. 05/24/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |