May 27, 2013 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||||||
Updated: Mon May 27 16:21:36 UTC 2013 | |||||||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 271618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF S-CNTRL/SERN NEB AND N-CNTRL/NERN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPS FROM THE NERN PACIFIC INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT OF A TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO SRN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE DEVELOPMENTS...PHASED VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER SERN ID/WRN WY AND THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER-MS VALLEY...SUPPRESSING THE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE NRN INTO CNTRL PLAINS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LEE CYCLONE OVER NWRN KS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD ALONG AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS NRN KS. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER-MO VALLEY INTO OZARKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN ONGOING MCS. FARTHER TO THE N AND E...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEWD THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW A WARM FRONT NWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT WHILE PROGRESSING EWD. FINALLY...A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD TODAY ACROSS WRN KS...THE OK/TX PNHDLS...AND WRN TX. ...CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION /I.E. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000-4000 J PER KG/ WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OWING TO VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LOWEST-100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 13.5-14.5 G/KG. EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL NEB...NEAR THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. HERE...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300+ M2/S2 BY THIS EVENING. INTENSE SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES /SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND VERY LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A SEWD-MOVING MCS TONIGHT WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND WRN/CNTRL MO. ADDITIONAL...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND/OR FAVORED TERRAIN OVER ERN WY AND THE NEB PNHDL SWD INTO NERN CO. HERE...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...LOWER-MO/MID-MS VALLEYS INTO OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AN MCV APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING AS OF MID MORNING OVER NERN MO...ON THE NRN FLANK OF NOCTURNAL MCS ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER-MO VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MCS COLD POOL COUPLED WITH DEEPER-LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MCV WILL LIKELY SUPPORT TSTM INTENSIFICATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. THE EWD MIGRATION OF A SWLY LLJ WILL ENHANCE THE NEWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE MID-MS INTO OH VALLEYS...BENEATH AN EWD-ADVECTING EML...SUPPORTING MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE MCS. GIVEN MODESTLY STRONG LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ACCELERATION OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SPREADING EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MT/NERN WY/WRN SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE 12Z RAP SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF 8.0-8.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500-MB LAYER...ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN AREAS WHERE STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR. SELY/ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS COLOCATED WITH SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 35-40 KT WILL RESULT IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE WITH DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS BEING THE PRIMARY MECHANISM DRIVING ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. ..MEAD/MOSIER.. 05/27/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |