SPC AC 081248

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 AM CDT SAT JUN 08 2013

   VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BELT OF MODESTLY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF
   ANDREA...AND AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE NOW MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
   THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
   FROM THE NORTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL
   RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD
   INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

   AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER JET EMERGING
   FROM THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN
   CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER.  WHILE THIS REGIME WILL REMAIN MORE OR LESS
   ZONAL IN NATURE...AN IMPULSE EMANATING FROM IT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
   DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   SHARPENING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO
   TONIGHT.

   ...MID MO VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/TEXAS BIG BEND REGION...
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH...MODELS INDICATE
   THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A LOW/
   MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION TODAY.  THIS
   FEATURE...AND SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD
   THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...ARE EXPECTED
   TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
   THIS PERIOD.  A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
   IS UNLIKELY.  HOWEVER...MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW PRESENT
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...COUPLED WITH SOME
   FURTHER INCREASE DUE TO EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...PROBABLY WILL SUPPORT
   WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

   VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  TORNADIC
   POTENTIAL REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR.  LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED NEAR A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
   ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...WHERE MID TO
   HIGH LEVEL FLOW LIKELY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK.  STRONGER
   MID/UPPER FLOW SUPPORTIVE OF LONGER HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FOCUSED
   ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE
   REGION...WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT SMALL UNTIL
   MID TO LATE EVENING.  REGARDLESS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
   MOSTLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY SIZABLE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
   TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS...WHICH PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN THE
   TENDENCY FOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW TO QUICKLY UNDERCUT ANY DEVELOPING
   MESOCYCLONES.  AS A RESULT...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

   ...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
   BEFORE THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MIGRATING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
   COAST STATES LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...DESTABILIZATION OF A
   LINGERING MOIST AIR MASS MAY PROVIDE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
   ISOLATED VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT.  DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR
   COULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE WEAKENING.

   ..KERR/JIRAK.. 06/08/2013

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