Jun 10, 2013 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 10 20:01:42 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130610 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130610 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130610 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130610 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 137,827 34,159,111 Philadelphia, PA...Charlotte, NC...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Nashville, TN...
   SPC AC 101957

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

   VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF GA AND SC NEWD 
   INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TN AND KY...

   PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES MADE
   WITH THE 20Z OUTLOOK WERE TO INCLUDE A SMALL 5 PERCENT TORNADO
   PROBABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN...AND TO EXTEND 10 PERCENT THUNDER
   LINE SLIGHTLY EWD ACROSS WRN KS.

   ..BUNTING.. 06/10/2013

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IL/IND UPR LOW EXPECTED TO DEVOLVE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT
   CONTINUES E INTO OH BY EVE AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY TUE.
   ASSOCIATED BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER TN
   TODAY...AND OVERSPREAD THE SRN APPALACHIANS...THE CAROLINAS...AND VA
   LATER BY MID-LATE AFTN. AHEAD OF THE LOW...LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... WITH THE
   70 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM REACHING SE PA/SRN NJ BY EVE.

   SCTD TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY SVR...WILL OCCUR IN THE MOISTENING
   ENVIRONMENT FROM PARTS OF GA NEWD INTO PA/NJ. OTHER STRONG TO SVR
   STORMS MAY OCCUR BENEATH THE UPR TROUGH OVER PARTS OF KY AND TN.

   FARTHER W...FLAT UPR RIDGE WILL BUILD E/NE ACROSS THE CNTRL
   PLNS...WITH ISOLD HIGH-BASED STORMS POSSIBLE FROM ERN CO INTO WRN
   KS. ON THE NW FLANK OF THE RIDGE...A BELT OF STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER
   THE NRN GRT BASIN/NRN RCKYS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PASSING JET STREAK
   MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SVR AFTN/EVE STORMS OVER PARTS OF
   ID...WY...AND MT.

   ...NE GA TO PA/NJ THIS AFTN/EVE...
   HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM
   LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS BANDS AND
   SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS BY EARLY AFTN IN MOISTENING/WEAKLY-CAPPED
   ENVIRONMENT FROM PARTS OF GA/SC NEWD INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.


   AREA HODOGRAPHS...ALREADY SEASONABLY LENGTHY...MAY FURTHER  LENGTHEN
   AS BELT OF 40-50 KT SWLY MID-LVL FLOW OVERSPREADS
   REGION...SUGGESTING LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS/LEWPS/SMALL BOWS WITH
   NARROW SWATHS OF DMGG WINDS. WHILE LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
   REMAIN LIMITED EXCEPT NEAR DIFFUSE WARM FRONT IN SRN PA/ERN
   MD/DE/NJ...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING THIS
   EVE/EARLY TNGT.

   ...MIDDLE/ERN TN AND SRN KY THIS AFTN/EVE...
   SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF
   TN AND KY TODAY...IN BASE OF MID-LVL TROUGH WHERE
   40+ KT WLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL EXIST ATOP LOW-LVL THETA-E
   AXIS. SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A CLUSTER OF STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO
   ONE OR TWO BANDS THAT COULD INCLUDE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING
   SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTN...DMGG
   WIND.

   ...NRN RCKYS LATE THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
   SFC HEATING...COOL MID-LVL TEMPS...AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN
   ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK MOVING FROM NRN MT INTO NRN ND SHOULD
   SUPPORT SCTD TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN ID...NW
   WY...AND SW MT. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...50+ KT WSWLY
   DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. A FEW
   STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A SPOT OR TWO OF
   HAIL.

   ..CNTRL HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
   VERY STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER ERN CO...SE WY...WRN
   NEB...AND WRN KS ON SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS. WHILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
   LIMITED...RELATIVELY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS WILL YIELD SIZABLE BUOYANCY.
   CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH SHOULD FOSTER WDLY SCTD HIGH-BASED
   DIURNAL STORMS. THESE SHOULD MOVE E OR ESE INTO THE EVE...AND MAY
   MERGE INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO WITH ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS AND
   SMALL HAIL. ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MAY FORM ALONG SEPARATE SEGMENT
   OF LEE TROUGH OVER NE NM...SE CO...SW KS...AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLE
   REGION...WHERE ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO MAY OCCUR.

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