Jun 18, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 18 01:02:39 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130618 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130618 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130618 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130618 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 183,934 2,343,588 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
   SPC AC 180058

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

   VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PERSISTING THROUGH THE
   EVENING WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM ERN CO/FAR
   WRN KS NWD INTO SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE.  THE SLIGHT RISK HAS
   BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL
   WY AND THE NRN EXTENT OF THE NEB PANHANDLE AND WRN NEB AS THEY TRACK
   SSEWD.  ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO SLY AND
   STRENGTHEN TO 25-30 KT THIS EVENING...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR
   A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
   UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE FOR ONE OR TWO TSTM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP
   AND TRACK SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
   PERIOD...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS LATER THIS
   EVENING AND TONIGHT.

   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   STORMS THAT HAVE MOVED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND FAR W TX
   WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO N-S ORIENTED BROKEN LINES AS
   INDICATED BY CURRENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY.  A MOIST...
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF WEST TX COMBINED WITH
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 40-45 KT WILL FAVOR SEVERE STORMS...SOME
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN THE LINES.  ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS WILL
   PERSIST ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW ENHANCED BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
   TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN.  A DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS
   OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 40
   DEGREES...ENHANCING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FOR THIS REASON AND
   THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWD MOVING MCS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE
   TX HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN HAVE RESULTED IN A SWD SHIFT
   OF THE 30 PERCENT SEVERE WIND THREAT AREA.

   ...SRN LOWER MI INTO NERN OH/NWRN PA/WRN NY...
   A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE YET THIS
   EVENING ACROSS THESE AREAS PRIOR TO THE STABILIZATION OF THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER.

   ...NORTH CENTRAL MT...
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 35 KT WILL
   SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS ACTIVITY MOVES
   OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO NORTH CENTRAL MT.

   ..PETERS.. 06/18/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z