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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 251252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES REGION...OH VALLEY...AND NORTHEAST STATES... ...IL/IND INTO OH/PA... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH AIDED IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS YESTERDAY HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO IA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z RAOBS FROM DVN TO ILN SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ASSUMING STRONG HEATING. WHILE THE MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THIS CORRIDOR WILL SEE A FAST-MOVING BOWING MCS TODAY CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. REF SWOMCD NUMBER 1217 FOR FURTHER SHORT TERM DETAILS. ...PA/NY INTO NEW ENGLAND... MULTIPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER PARTS OF NY/PA AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING CONFIRMS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT WILL CONVECT RATHER EARLY. SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL POSE A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE SURFACE WINDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...IA/MO/IL THIS EVENING... IN APPEARS THAT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF IA/MO NEAR CORE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...ALONG WITH STRONG CAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG. SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS MAY TRACK EASTWARD ROUGHLY ALONG THE SAME CORRIDOR OF STORMS THIS MORNING...INTO IL AND IND. ...DAKOTAS... A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...WHERE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS REGION /15-25 KNOTS/ SUGGESTING THAT MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES ARE MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL YIELD A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ..HART/ROGERS.. 06/25/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |