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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 052232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0532 PM CDT FRI JUL 05 2013 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... AMENDED FOR NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION UPGRADE REF WW 392 AND SUCCEEDING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM INFO ON OUTLOOK UPGRADE AREA. FULL DISCUSSION FORTHCOMING WITH REGULAR 01Z ISSUANCE. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0228 PM CDT FRI JUL 05 2013/ ...NY INTO VT... ADJUSTED SLIGHT RISK NEWD INTO VT AND NH WHERE EXISTING STORMS WILL PERSIST IN A VERY WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT...AND WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM LONGEVITY. THE MORE CELLULAR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WHILE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY MATERIALIZE WITH TIME AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD PRIOR TO SUNSET. ..EDWARDS.. 07/05/2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 05 2013/ ...PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND... A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT GENERALLY NEUTRAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT CHANGES WILL OCCUR ACROSS NY/PA TODAY WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE RATHER NEBULOUS UPPER FORCING MECHANISMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND CAPE WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. THE AREA THAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO SEE STORMS TODAY IS OVER PARTS OF NY AND NORTHEAST PA WHERE STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS MOST CONSISTENT. ...MN... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN LATER TODAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL PROMOTE A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED AND SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO ID/NV/UT... MODERATELY STRONG /30-40 KNOT/ WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR DEEP CONVECTION MAY YIELD A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MT WILL HELP FOCUS SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. SEVERAL AREAS OF CLOUD COVER ADD UNCERTAINTY TO DEGREE OF THE THREAT...SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SEE TEXT DESIGNATION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |