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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 061949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT SAT JUL 06 2013 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...SERN MO...SRN IL... SEVERAL STRONG STORMS HAVE FORMED BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...AND GIVEN CONTINUED HEATING AND STRONG INSTABILITY...HAIL AND A FEW WET MICROBURSTS MAY OCCUR. HAVE EXPANDED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WWD INTO SERN MO WHERE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE. ...ERN NV/UT... PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.00 INCH AND DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP. STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT WLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ..JEWELL.. 07/06/2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT SAT JUL 06 2013/ ...NORTHERN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN MT...WHILE A SECOND VORT MAX IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHWEST WY. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL MERGE INTO AN MCS AND TRACK INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. ...MID MS VALLEY... A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER MO...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND SUBSTANTIAL AMBIENT VORTICITY MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS AND POSE A THREAT OF HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND PERHAPS FUNNEL CLOUDS. ...EASTERN STATES... A LONG-FETCH PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS ZONE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST CORES. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR MIGHT ALSO POSE A RISK OF HAIL FROM OH INTO NY/PA. ...UT/ID INTO WY/MT... 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A POCKET OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST ID AND NORTHWEST UT. THIS AREA WILL SEE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THE 12Z NAM/HRRR IS ALSO MORE BULLISH ON CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF MT/WY WHERE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR MIGHT RESULT IN STRONG UPDRAFTS. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |