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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 141250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE STG ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADING FROM NERN CONUS ACROSS UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER OZARKS -- PROCEEDS WSWWD ACROSS OK. STG RIDGE WILL EXTEND WSWWD FROM NERN CONUS HIGH ACROSS NEB THEN ARCHING SWWD/SWD OVER UT/AZ. MAIN BELT OF WSWLY/WLY FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM PAC NW ENEWD ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO NRN ONT. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW OVER ID -- SHOULD LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS MT TO SRN MB BY END OF PERIOD. DISPLACEMENT OF FAVORABLE STG FLOW ALOFT FROM MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT SUGGESTS MINIMAL SVR POTENTIAL OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. AT SFC...EFFECTIVE COLD-FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND SRN SEMICIRCLE OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE...RELATED TO BOTH DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN DEEP-LAYER COOLING AND INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP ON DIABATIC-HEATING PROCESSES IN BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN EVIDENT ABOVE SFC -- E.G. IN 14/00Z 925-MB ANALYSIS -- AND WAS DRAWN ON 11Z SFC CHART FROM SERN LA ACROSS SERN THROUGH N-CENTRAL TX...THEN NNEWD OVER SERN NEB AND CENTRAL IA. RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD SHIFT SWWD WITH TIME ACROSS ERN NM AND WRN/CENTRAL/SERN TX...OVERTAKING DRYLINE NOW EVIDENT FROM TX BIG-BEND REGION TO ERN PANHANDLE. ...SRN PLAINS TO DIXIE... THREE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE REGIMES EXIST TODAY OVER THIS REGION...WITH ENOUGH OVERLAP TO YIELD SINGULAR AREAS OF MRGL SVR WIND/HAIL RISK. 1. BAROCLINIC ZONE...REINFORCED BY CLOUD/PRECIP PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH BELT OF ELEVATED TSTMS NOW EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KS SWD ACROSS PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX...MAY BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT/SFC-BASED CONVECTION TODAY. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ANEW OR AS CONTINUATION OF PART OF TSTM BELT NOW UNDERWAY. ENHANCED MID-UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED AROUND CYCLONE ALOFT...WITH ONE JET MAX ARCHING FROM WRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE SEWD OVER NW/N-CENTRAL TX BY 00Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD INCLUDE 70-75 KT 250-MB SPEED MAX...AND 40-50 KT 500-MB WINDS...IN SUPPORT OF FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY ENLARGE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/NW TX ALONG AND BEHIND BOUNDARY...WHERE SFC WINDS ARE MOST BACKED...YIELDING VERY STG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AS SUCH...CONDITIONAL SUPERCELL POTENTIAL EXISTS. HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS WILL INCLUDE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE DCVA/COLD-CORE REGION ALOFT...LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER W TX SWATH...AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL COOLING TO EXTEND OUT FROM UNDER STRONGEST MID-UPPER FLOW. ATTM...THREAT APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL-THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. 2. POCKETS OF SFC HEATING AND OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARIES MAY DEVELOP BENEATH COLD-CORE REGION OF MID-UPPER LOW...AND ESPECIALLY OVER ITS PROXIMAL ERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...MUCH OF LATTER AREA ALSO WILL LIE BENEATH MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND PERHAPS WEAK DVM...WITH DCVA BEING OVER WRN/SWRN SIDES OF VORTEX OF THIS NATURE. MEANWHILE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MINIMIZED BENEATH MOST OF STRONGEST COOLING ALOFT. GIVEN THESE DISPLACEMENTS...POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SVR LIMITS EXISTS BUT APPEARS ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL. 3. PLUME OF DEEP SELYS AND RELATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOCATED OVER LOWER MS VALLEY REGION EWD THROUGH PORTIONS MS/AL...AMIDST CONFLUENT MID-UPPER WINDS. EXPECT SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS AFTN TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND BANDS. VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STG SFC INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO YIELD AREAS OF 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. DEEP SHEAR THROUGH CLOUD LAYER WILL BE ENHANCED BY ERN SPEED MAX ALOFT FROM MID-SOUTH AREA SEWD OVER PORTIONS AL. PRECIP LOADING AND LOCALIZED MAXIMA IN PRECONVECTIVE/BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT STG/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH MOST INTENSE CELLS IN THIS REGIME. ..EDWARDS/SMITH.. 07/14/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |
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