Jul 15, 2013 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Mon Jul 15 16:33:39 UTC 2013 | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 151629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2013 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE UPR OH VLY THROUGH TUE AS SRN PLNS UPR LOW CONTINUES SLOWLY WWD AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENS. A RIDGE WILL PERSIST N AND W OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM AZ THROUGH THE GRT BASIN TO THE NRN PLNS. N OF THE RIDGE...A BELT OF FAST WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM SRN BC TO NRN ONT. A FAIRLY STRONG IMPULSE IN THIS FLOW...NOW ENTERING SRN AB...WILL REACH SW SK THIS EVE AND WRN MB EARLY TUE. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AB IMPULSE WILL TRACK E/NE ALONG MARKED FRONTAL ZONE OVER SRN SK LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SE INTO NRN MT THIS EVE/EARLY TUE AS AN ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE ERN PART OF THAT STATE. ELSEWHERE...SFC FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK. LARGE-SCALE COOL-AIR DOME ASSOCIATED WITH SRN PLNS UPR LOW WILL EXPAND FARTHER W INTO NM AND S ACROSS S TX...WHILE ITS ERN FRINGE ERODES OVER ERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH IN SK AND NE MT LATER TODAY...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT ADJACENT PARTS OF WY/ND. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND/OR MODEST SHEAR SHOULD MINIMIZE SVR THREAT ELSEWHERE IN THE NATION. ...NRN HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT... STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER NRN/ERN MT NWD INTO SRN SK. APPRECIABLE LOW-LVL MOISTURE INFLOW ALSO SHOULD PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR ERN AND NERN MT. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THAT AREA LIKELY WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW 60S F...AND CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG GIVEN CONTINUING PRESENCE OF DEEP EML. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AB UPR IMPULSE WILL REMAIN N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...SUFFICIENT UPR DIVERGENCE/DCVA SHOULD OVERSPREAD PARTS OF MT TO HELP INITIATE STORMS THERE GIVEN LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR LEE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP E/NE INTO WRN AND NRN ND THIS EVE AS THE FRONT/TROUGH CONTINUE ENEWD. 35-40 KT WSWLY 500 MB FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF UPR IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND. ALTHOUGH SIZABLE SFC T/TD SPREADS WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF MT...SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT SCTD TO BKN CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE STATE EWD INTO ND. COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY BACKED SFC FLOW IN THIS REGION...SOME RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES. MERGING STORM OUTFLOWS AND THE CONTINUED ENE ADVANCE OF UPR IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT EVOLUTION INTO A SMALL MCS BY MID EVE...EXTENDING THE THREAT FOR SVR WIND/HAIL FARTHER E/NE INTO ND. SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO WY...THE SVR RISK APPEARS MORE MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL GIVEN WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT...WEAKER SHEAR...AND MORE LIMITED MOISTURE. NEVERTHELESS...TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP EML AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR STORMS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SVR WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT. ...S TX THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT... SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW WILL YIELD MODEST LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION ALONG DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIFTING SLOWLY S ACROSS S CNTRL TX TODAY. BUT WWD MOTION OF OK UPR LOW WILL DO LITTLE TO ERODE WARM MID-LVL TEMPS ACROSS REGION. COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS SPREADING SWD WITH NNWLY UPR-LVL FLOW AND THE ABSENCE OF STRONG WLYS IN THE MID-LVLS...PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED SVR STORMS APPEAR MINIMAL. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PW AND 25 KT SELY LOW-LVL FLOW PERSISTING OVER REGION...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN OCCASIONAL STORM OR TWO POSING A TRANSIENT RISK FOR A LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADO. ..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 07/15/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |