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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 170044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...VA INTO THE CAROLINAS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE SWWD FROM SERN VA INTO CNTRL AND ERN NC WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY COOL MID TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE HELPING TO SUSTAIN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER CIN SHOULD NOT INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY...THEREFORE A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO SC. ...ID/ERN OR/SWRN MT... SCATTERED STORMS THAT FORMED DURING THE DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCING THE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO DRYING FROM THE SW AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND OUTFLOW HELPING TO STABILIZE THE AIR MASS. ...ND INTO NRN MN... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. GIVEN INCREASING CIN DURING THE EVENING...AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD PERSIST WITH MAINLY NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ..JEWELL.. 07/17/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |
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