| 
)| Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
 |
|||||||||
| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| |||||||||
SPC AC 230100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT THU AUG 22 2013 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-UPPER LOW NEAR THE ORE/CA BORDER WILL MOVE NWD TO THE COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL SWLY/S OVERSPREADS ERN OR AND WRN ID THIS EVENING/TONIGHT TO THE NW OF AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE S-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER E...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER DELMARVA WILL EXIT THE COAST BY LATE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN ONTARIO MOVES THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ...ERN ORE AND WRN/CNTRL ID TONIGHT... DIFFLUENT MID-UPPER FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO THE E/NE OF THE NWD MIGRATING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SCTD STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH STORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. NONETHELESS...BELT OF 40+ KT H5 FLOW SAMPLED BY THE OOZ/23 REV RAOB WILL LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORM PERSISTENCE/VIGOR ON THE WRN ENVELOPE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN/SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY LOCALLY YIELD A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUST THREAT THIS EVENING. ...CNTRL AND N-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING... MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE N OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SERN CO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THIS REGION IS LOCATED ON THE N SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE...20 KT 6 KM FLOW WILL AID IN A FEW WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND GUST THREAT DURING THE EVENING HOURS PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. ...NEW ENGLAND... THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT FROM THE W MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY PORTIONS OF MAINE. DESPITE A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS AND A WIND PROFILE SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELLS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLD WIND DMG THREAT WITH A LINE SEGMENT. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND COOLING TEMPS HAVE ACTED TO STABILIZE A LARGE PORTION OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST/SERN U.S. A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY PERSIST IN THE NEAR-TERM --PERHAPS OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT-- BEFORE DIMINISHING AS AN EWD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER DELMARVA THIS EVENING BECOMES INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE CAROLINAS. ..SMITH/KERR.. 08/23/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |
|||||||||