Sep 5, 2013 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 5 12:41:43 UTC 2013 (20130905 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20130905 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130905 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130905 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130905 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130905 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 151,966 3,105,894 Boise, ID...Spokane, WA...Yakima, WA...Missoula, MT...Kennewick, WA...
   SPC AC 051238

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 AM CDT THU SEP 05 2013

   VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES TODAY
   INTO THIS EVENING...

   ...NORTHWEST STATES...
   MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OFF THE ORE
   COAST.  A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
   OF THE LOW...AND WILL CAUSE AN EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE LOW
   LATER TODAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES.  MID LEVEL HEIGHT
   FALLS...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS...AND COOLING ALOFT WILL OCCUR
   ACROSS PARTS OF WA/ORE/ID/MT.  12Z RAOBS AT OTX/BOI/LKN SHOW MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM AND SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
   TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
   EVENING HOURS.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER RESIDES OVER THE SLIGHT
   RISK AREA...WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL
   SEVERE RISK TODAY.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT LEAST SOME AREAS WILL
   SEE BROKEN SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO POCKETS OF
   STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  DESPITE RATHER WEAK LOW
   LEVEL WINDS...OTHER PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
   SUPERCELL/BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  IF
   GREATER INSTABILITY WERE TO DEVELOP...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WOULD
   BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

   ..HART.. 09/05/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z