Sep 5, 2013 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Thu Sep 5 12:41:43 UTC 2013 ( | ) | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 051238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 AM CDT THU SEP 05 2013 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING... ...NORTHWEST STATES... MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OFF THE ORE COAST. A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW...AND WILL CAUSE AN EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE LOW LATER TODAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS...AND COOLING ALOFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF WA/ORE/ID/MT. 12Z RAOBS AT OTX/BOI/LKN SHOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM AND SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER RESIDES OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL SEVERE RISK TODAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT LEAST SOME AREAS WILL SEE BROKEN SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO POCKETS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...OTHER PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELL/BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF GREATER INSTABILITY WERE TO DEVELOP...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. ..HART.. 09/05/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |